That is the question–sorry, Hamlet. And White Flower Farm has some help with the answer: an article on Plants Slow to Break Dormancy. They have a lot of other articles in the Newsletter section of their Garden Help.
Now, the digging and dividing of perennials, the general autumn cleanup and the planting of spring bulbs are all an act of faith. One carries on before the altar of delayed gratification, until the ground freezes and you can’t do any more other than refill the bird feeder and gaze through the window, waiting for the snow. . . . Meanwhile, it helps to think of yourself as a pear tree or a tulip. You will blossom spectacularly in the spring, but only after the required period of chilling.
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I have had many a pleasant surprise by leaving my itchy fingers from digging out a plant that I was certain had not over-wintered successfully.
What I try and do is remember which plants are late in coming up and mark them!
Kathy: This comment has no bearing whatsoever on your post, but I wasn’t sure where else to comment. Imagine my surprise when I finally got around to reading my March Northern Gardener magazine and saw you and your blog featured. Very cool!